What’s in the cards at EBACE?

There is an alarming ongoing trend at EBACE. There was a time that halls were filled wall to wall and several major aircraft manufactures had exhibits that looked like an estate with a palace on it. Not anymore. Some major players in the industry are not even exhibiting. The costs are too high and the return on investment too low. There is competition from smaller but more specialized and targeted events and where the costs of participating are lower. 

It may be high time for the organizers to put on their thinking cap. One cannot have them all, unless one can prove to be unique. Do the words innovation and rejuvenation ring a bell? The new normal is not the old normal anymore and it clearly shows now in 2024.  Don’t blame it on the pandemic. Maybe it is because the Chief Financial Officers have rightfully raised their voice in board meetings.   

How seriously can we take the various industry forecasts that will be presented? When it comes to responding to an issue, a column writer is often hung up between Shakespeare’s “I’m not to please thee with my answer” and “Give thy thoughts no tongue”. Forecasts can make some people obscenely loaded and make others obscenely depressed.

Don’t let statistics rule the business, let the business rule the statistics! If the business is on a East-West horizontal course, then look for a business development oriented individual who can turn it towards the North by actively networking and opening doors. It is nice to have tailwind when flying but in order to rise upwards, one needs to use headwind first. Entrepreneurs and pioneers know that only the proactive bird catches the worm; the reactive bird doesn’t, no matter how early he gets up. 

Too often forecasters say that they are ‘carefully optimistic’. It is a hidden manner of saying: “We don’t know, we hope for the best but suggest that you don’t put those hopes too high.” It is like the weatherman’s forecast for the day: “Partly sunny with some clouds and an occasional shower” which should please the makers of umbrellas or parasols that are equally good for sun as for rain protection. When the statistics show that the figures are up month-to-month, but they are down year-to-year, forecasters may say that there is an uptrend regardless. And if the year-to-year figures are up but they are down month-to-month, then there is still an uptrend but with a seasonal down. 

Aviation industry forecasting may have some similarities with weather forecasting. Aviation industry forecasters are praised and frequently quoted where it suits best in a presentation, and they sort of determine the climate of the industry. However, meteorologists know that climate is what we expect, and weather is what we actually get. 

The analog may be applicable because aviation operations are particularly sensitive to the weather and therefore accurate weather prediction is essential. Low ceilings, updrafts, crosswinds, icing, sea level pressure, obscurations to vision, and many other factors need continuous observation and updated reporting.  

One has to keep in mind though that doing business is not about flying or sitting on a cloud. Some like flying because taking off feels so good. Nothing is so common as the wish to be remarkable. Don’t let attendance at the conference become the very definition of a fishing expedition. Network hard and let the business rule the statistics.